A new NPR/PBS poll came out with Biden vs Trump vs Kennedy where Biden has a 7-point lead over Trump. For context, their poll with Biden vs Trump only had Biden at a 3-point lead over Trump. As I expected, those votes came primarily from Trump who went from 46% to 37% between polling vs Biden who only went from 49% to 44%.
Obviously, this single poll isn’t anything to buy confetti over, particularly because it seemed biased for Biden and doesn’t include Cornel West for some reason, but it could be indicative of a large number of independents and many Republicans who are looking for someone other than Trump to represent them. He might be the “spoiler candidate” Democrats have been waiting for (though I still think Nader gets too much hatred).
I encourage y’all to look at the link below if you put any stock in polls which its fair if you don’t. But 16% seems significant still. No third-party presidential candidate has had over 10% of the vote since 1992 and Kennedy isn’t even endorsed by the Libertarian party (yet).
Source
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll National Registered Voters. (2023, October 11). If the 2024 election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Joe Biden, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., an independent. https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables-2024_202310131239.pdf
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll National Registered Voters. (2023, October 11). If the 2024 election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican. https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables-2024_202310131239.pdf