Scenario: Biden has decided not to seek re-election and you are tasked to answer three politically strategic questions:
- When does he announce?
- Where does he announce?
- What themes and messages does he communicate to the audience?
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- Should have been Friday. From here on in, it’s only making it even harder for his replacement.
What’s a Dem Congress member supposed to do? Switch to Independent and sign on to an Article 25?? The Party is on a trajectory to dissolution anyway if Biden continues to barricade himself in.
If he had stepped down yesterday, he could have been praised as going “out on top”. If he keeps it up, he will only be remembered as the guy who burned the House down.
And to any Repubs enjoying this situation: you would never have the balls to stand up to leadership when they are dead wrong; you must follow the orders of the guy who kept Mein Kampf on his nightstand (and he’s not into reading, so that tells you how much he values its crackpot ideas…)
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Announce 1-3days after the RNC convention because the opposing ticket has been revealed, and Biden can steal all of the media coverage.
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Announce alone from the Oval Office in prime time, on a weekday, with no significant sporting/entertainment programming conflicts. Give the networks about 12-24hours advanced notice.
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a) Remind the audience of greatly-admired US historical figures who sacrificed for others and improved the country (i.e…give 2-3 anecdotes).
b) Reflect on the dangers to democracy the MAGA convention just highlighted last week, and how we all must do our part to protect our country.
c) Apologize that his debate performance re-framed this high-stakes election about “my aging limitations” instead of the real threat - Trump&Project 2025.
d) Announce that he will not seek re-election: so he can remove the “too-old/limited” narrative for the voters and help them focus on the real issues of the future (democracy, health care, lowering expenses, reproductive freedom, jobs, gun violence, etc…).
e) If he has a preferred ticket who has been vetted/poll-tested then endorse that ticket by name, while simultaneously calling for an open Dem convention.
f) Do the standard Biden US-cheerleading at the end to make sure the tone is inspirational, up-beat, and a call-to-service!!!
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1.) Air an interview between President Biden and Joe Scarborough this Monday at 5:00 Eastern/4:00 Central, right before most major networks will start covering the Republican National Convention.
2.) Have the interview be very laid back, as far as that stuff goes, and take place in the kitchen garden of the White House. This will be a subtle homage to the Obamas and to health, integrity, and simplicity.
3.) Biden should not address his health. He should focus on his accomplishments over 50 years of public service, and enjoying life with his family. With this, he can point toward a positive future with Harris.
The Republicans will be upstaged, scrambling, and sure to give us a million ignorant and bigoted sound bites. This will make it look like Biden is going out on his terms and is still an important voice.
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If he choses to “drop out”, I think it will be after the RNC and after we get to know Trump’s VP So DINOs can run their polls and see who has the best chance against the repub ticket.
The message is going to be simply that he is focused on international affairs and dealing with a lot of events right now and he doesn’t think he can continue with his campaign and presidenting at the same time. Standard establishment drivel.
Where? In some press conference at WH would do just fine
I still think that would be a ginormous mistake; I will repeat, Tories pushed out Boris Johnson, had a leadership crisis, installed corporate sleazebag sunak and faceplanted into the worst defeats in a 100 years.
All replacements are polling worse than biden and they haven’t been exposed to media vultures digging out all the dirty laundry yet
Funding will be stuck with kamala because her approval is needed along with Joe’s to use that money for anything else. And she wont give in easily knowg she will never have another chance at presidency.
Plus we are going to lose many black voters for skipping her over.
Dems will fight each other and do oppo research doing the repub’s job for them.
And whoever takes charge will be starting a campaign from scratch, fundraising from scratch 100 days out from elections and 60 days out from early voting.
I know people want this to be about Biden’s age and mental decline but it isn’t. The exodus started way before this media cycle and people are sick of the dem platform. Unless there is a total overhaul of the platform itself, it doesn’t matter who you out on the ticket, the results will be the same, except you will get all the negative effects of creating chaos. Which can be seen in the polling of Biden’s replacements.
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I could be wrong, but dropping out before the RNC would make things more difficult because then, not knowing who they are opposing, they would be forced to give a confused message. “Gee, if we say X it will be great against opponent #1; but terrible against opponent #2, #3…”
Add to that, replacements will have a lot to do before the election (putting together foreign policy, battleground attack plans, etc.); every day will count. That’s why I said his not taking advantage of Friday clusterfoks the chances for a replacement…
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Are you saying it would make things difficult for RNC? I don’t think it will, I think they know who the VP is going to be, they just haven’t announced it because they don’t want them dems to know and strategies around it, I am not even sure they will announce at RNC, Especially considering what happened to Trump today. He can just wait it out. Donors and voters all know its Trump on the ticket, he is in no rush til sept when the ballots have to be sent for printing.
I think there is a chance they might announce and we may get some hints. Which is why I think it would be wise to wait until after. Plus 5 days isn’t going to make any difference. The new candidates would have a lot to plan for before they can start with foreign policy or whatever Like funding, campaign staff, media appearances etc., Foreign policy isn’t even on the top 5 things people are concerned about. Nowhere, not even in Michigan
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I think the best chance Biden’s team has now is to hire two stunt doubles, one that looks like Biden and one in a Ninja costume. The “Ninja” jumps out from behind a bush where “Biden” is getting ice cream only to have “Biden” defeat the “Ninja” with his mad skills. The “Ninja” is then fake shot and killed by the Secret Service. Weirder things could happen. (Too soon? 
)
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I think people now realize that no matter which Dem runs for president now will likely lose. So people might not even come forward to run. They want to keep their powder dry for next election. So this scenario of Biden dropping out might not even happen. Biden might be forced to continue even if he didn’t want to.
I really really hope I am wrong.
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