The New Candidates

Operation Hope
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The most important thing is to pick the candidate that has the best electoral chance; that polls strongest in Swing States (and will stop the bleed-out in purple and blue ones!) We don’t have to accept a strategy that will restrict our options, given the importance now of what is at stake: a cabal of anti-Constitutional lunatics seizing control.

If the blank-slate PACs don’t raise a significant sum by the Convention, then I agree it’s moot. Have you seen all the MEGAdonors who have announced they are pausing donations to Biden/HARRIS until this is sorted out?

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146

Biden can endorse whoever he sees fit; an OPEN Convention can choose to heed him -or not…

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Biden is correct in that we have one job: to beat Trump in November. Unfortunately Biden is not campaigning in a manner that can accomplish that job!

He has an above-average record and a good set of topics to campaign on (infrastructure, job #s, NATO expansion, reproductive rights, student debt relief, prescription drug price reductions, stock market highs, no recession, etc). He has an opponent with even more characteristics and agendas to campaign against (specifically Agenda47 or Project2025).

Several democratic senators (WI/MI/AZ/PA) running for election have been out-pacing Biden for months by 3-5% (by SAME polling firms). This is a one-person problem—BIDEN

The party and anti-Trumpers were united before the debate, even though he was slightly losing in the swing states. BIDEN created this problem in front of 51M viewers, which limited his support/potential volunteers. He has yet to correct the problem after 1.5weeks as his poll numbers worsen. He is not on a winning trajectory, and his “I did my best” answer during the George interview does NOT reflect the seriousness of the threat to democracy.

I think he has about 1.5-2.0 more weeks to put his swing state poll numbers on a positive trajectory or risk being privately asked by Dem senators/representatives to step aside. I expect vulnerable Dem senators/representative to run “away” from Biden during the election season, and for money to flow “away” from him too. His convention will be a disaster because he’s crossing the line of being selfish, stubborn, and in-denial.

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148

“I accept responsibility [for the debate performance]”

If by the end of this week we don’t see something like a ten point snap back from where things are at now, he should be helping to seat a candidate whose prospects are electorially good. Refusing to do that is to give the lie to “accepting responsibility”…

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149

What he did these past 4 years, in spite of a brazenly obstructing Congress, was something just this short of a miracle. But looking at that F-up of the debate, when things were TIGHT, he blew it. I’d like another candidate to insure the better chances of a win, and he could act in an advisory capacity to such a new administration…

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150

Biden is still a politician, so his moment of greatest leverage (and new goodwill) is to endorse when he announces he’s no longer running. If he announced ~4weeks before the DNC convention that he endorsed a new ticket then expect that ticket to run completely unopposed at the open convention.

I don’t think big name politicians with future aspirations would run against a Biden-endorsed ticket after he selflessly decided to put the country ahead of himself.

151

If you chose Jimmy Carter, you’d have to incorporate a plan for cryonic suspension (all due props to him for shepherding long-overdue legislation…)

He was the guy who made the Strategic Oil Reserve a reality, which has been a strategic tool used by Biden to keep the oil cartels in line…

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152

In a perfect world it would be Marianne Williamson. Her platform is near flawless.

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153

Before even talking about “best” replacements, maybe check polls for potential replacements. All of them poll worse than Biden. All of them except that one outlier poll about Michelle Obama (which I think was backed by someone who wants her to run or something). And that is before their skeletons are dug out from the closet. If you replace Biden and harris and pick someone like Newsom, there is a massive risk of black people fleeing. Of donors fleeing. So why go through with a convention when there is High risk and zero reward? Convention is not a primary or an election, it is a bunch of elites picking the sleaziest, most corrupt corporate lapdog without voter input. Biden is at least holding neck and neck with Trump right now. I don’t see the upside that people are making out to be with the replacement.

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What I find baffling is that Fox platformed her where she herself said that CNN and I think MSNBC have blacklisted her. Make that make sense

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Harris hasn’t done anything wrong on the campaign trail, Biden did. Harris didn’t faceplant in front of 51M people after preparing for 6-7 consecutive days, Biden did. The problem with the campaign is uniquely focused on Biden, and he is the one who needs to provide a solution. Harris should stay on the ticket.

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Nope, theoretically Biden has no power to dictate what his delegates do once he steps down. Reality though is they are his people so they will kind of do what he wants. Biden isn’t the establishment guy. He was the person liked by establishment a lot and he has run out his usefulness, That is why you see the media turning on him. He doesnt have the power to do anything once he steps down.

The problem is the money that has been pledged to the Biden harris campaign. If Biden is removed that money goes to harris. I am not clear on the laws here but if you remove both Biden and harris, then you can either

  1. Return money to donors.
  2. Donate to a charity
  3. Take donor permissions nd Biden and harris permission to give that money to down ballot races or another candidate.
    Harris knows she isn’t going to get another chance to run - ever again - if she doesnt run this time., She is Not going to agree to fund her replacement. And Harris is not popular with establishment or people. She was picked because she checked Identity boxes. So after all that if you still get stuck with harris then what was the point of all this theatre. Could have just anointed her directly., because convention isn’t some primary where they will discuss policy like Cenk pretends, It is a bunch of corporate hacks picking the sleaziest most corrupt corporate hack ever
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157

It’s because she has always called out the blatant corruption in the democratic party & Fox has to love that

CNN, NBC etc tend to protect the dem party

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158

I think it was just because she chose to run against Biden in the primaries they never wanted a competition in

159

Biden is still losing the swing state public polls, either at the same pre-debate margin or a worse pre-debate margin. If Biden’s internal polling was better then he would probably make that data public. He’s on a losing trajectory yet he wants to blame the media, or blame his ‘bedwetting’ supporters, or blame the congressional representatives.

160

But is he??

If that gap grows. forget it. Most everyone agreed his Stephanopolous interview was quite poor. And Biden has handed tons of fodder to the Repubs to use in the remaining months. Not working past 8? The debate footage?

Hey, I said it above: if by the end of this week he does a surge past Stupid Hitler -maybe he stays. But do you really think that’s going to happen now??

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161

And I am going to talk about something that really irked me in the cenk destiny debate.
Whenever divisions are brought up, Cenk starts talking about primaries. These are NOT primaries. This is a bunch of elites picking the sleaziest most corporate hack of a candidate. But other than that
Primaries are 10 month before the election which allows for tough candidates, for vetting, for skeletons to come out so then when you have picked one, you can move on and unite behind them for the next few months. By the time convention comes around, you have the entire party on a united front behind one candidate so you can push that campaign’s platform effectively.

The ousting of Biden at this point and starting divisions now is not a normal process. Most people haven’t seen this in their lifetime, and hardly any have seen it where they annoint someone with no mandate in the primary. That is going to be divisive.

Learn from Tory loss. After ousting Boris, there were deep fractures in the party that never healed. Which was a big reason as to why they lost the elections

When you compare the last 2 elections:
2016, Repubs had a hard fought primary, they got their candidate got behind him and won, Dems had deep divisions between Hillary and Bernie supporters which became one of the many reasons of her loss.

2020 was opposite. Dems had a hard fought primary and we got Biden who narrowly scraped a win. Repubs on the other hand developed massive rifts between RINOS and MAGA and they lost.

2024, Repubs again had a hard fought primary, have picked their candidate and fallen in a row behind him. Dems ar looking to start divisions right now.

Just a reminder - DNC is 19th -22nd August., Early voting will be starting in about a month. Do we really think a candidate will be able to campaign in all states., develop name recognition etc and raise funds again in that time? Are we sure that some scandals arent going to leak about that person and tank the whole thing? And none of Biden’s replacements are polling better than him. Every response I hear for who the replacement should be is a delusional one. Yes, we would all like our dream tickets. But this isn’t a primary. Elites are gonna pick and you have to choose from the elites they will allow. And none of them are currently polling better than Biden (except one vested interest poll showing Michelle doing slightly better).

So why take the chance?
Biden is neck and neck in the popular vote. He is leading (Acc to Bloomberg poll on 4th July) in Michigan. I am seeing a High Risk and NO reward in replacement right now

Also I believe Deadline for gerogia is 9th July. Iowa - Aug 21. Akransas and Illinois Aug 22.

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163

Oh please, CBS has a detailed debate poll on this. A lot of people thought Trump won the debate but no one who was gonna vote for Biden said they will change their mind . And Independents arent decided anyway. The polls shows they are split between the two on issues. I think you people are blowing it way over proportion

164

I believe this is the July 1 poll. July 4th Bloomberg poll shows biden back in lead in Mi by +4 and when RFK Jr is accounted for by +5.
Bloomberg also shows July 1-5 poll than Biden has a +3 lead in Wisconsin And Biden actually closed the gap in the last few days.
For PA Trump has a +3 lead in the same poll. But it has recently shifted with all the media coverage and I do genuinely think it might shift back.
But the point still remains that none of the replacements are polling better and they haven’t been tested in the public eye and their skeletons haven’t come out yet. Showing me Biden’s polls don’t convince me to pick unknown people just because you feel like “anyone would be better”