The x axis (I assume it’s dates) is not shown on the charts. What is the source? I would like to use for analysis
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Just screenshots from realclearpolitics.com this afternoon… I’ll let you all grab the pertinent dates on the x-axis, or you can read the tables that include the dates/sample sizes/MOEs/etc…
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No he is not. July 4th Bloomberg poll shows biden back in lead in Mi by +4 and when RFK Jr is accounted for by +5.
Bloomberg also shows July 1-5 poll than Biden has a +3 lead in Wisconsin And Biden actually closed the gap in the last few days.
For PA Trump has a +3 lead in the same poll. But it has recently shifted with all the media coverage and I do genuinely think it might shift back.
But the point still remains that none of the replacements are polling better and they haven’t been tested in the public eye and their skeletons haven’t come out yet. Showing me Biden’s polls don’t convince me to pick unknown people just because you feel like “anyone would be better”
These graphs represent moving averages and include polls released today, July 8th. Let’s not have our heads in the sand to believe Biden is polling well compared to Trump in 2024 swing states.
For further reference, look at the Biden-Trump MI/WI/PA state polls during the 2020 election…Biden was ahead almost outside of the margin-of-error. By election night he won those states by less than 1.5%. Do we really think all these polling firms changed their methodologies from 2020 to bias Trump in 2024…OR…is Biden just getting his a$$ kicked in these crucial states??
This current campaign is zombie-walking to a devastating blowout loss in November, the singular problem is Biden, and that is why noticeable numbers of people want him replaced!!
Dude you can kick and scream about Biden but show me empirical data which shows any of the viable replacements doing better than Trump. And the moving averages had Trump at +4 right after the debate and now shows Trump +2.6. So yes, once this media cycle blows over, this gap can be closed. You cannot just scream at Biden and then not show me data which convinces me that replacements are better. This isn’t about your feelings or the feelings of 200k people watching TYT regularly, This is 340 million people. And largely independents the 40% who arent MAGA or never Trumpers. So I am going to need polls that empirically show replacements doing better to make such a large gamble this late in the cycle.
Which polls released today? I can only find ones from July 5-7 and they arent for Mi
I am posting here because my reply limit has been reached.
I am averaging them. But averaging polls from before the debate with polls after the debate makes little sense, And time also matters. You said it includes polls from today. I am merely asking you which poll was released today so I can expand my knowledge.
You are consistently ignoring that PA has flipped recently because of the new coverage and is again like 2 point gap. In the other 2 Biden was behind on 29th - 1st but is leading 5-7th data. So your point doesn’t make any sense to me.
You are not going to convince me unless you show me polls that show any of the other candidates doing better.
There is internal polling and it shows them behind Biden and losing to Trump. Except that one Ipsos poll that shows Michelle leading which is moot since she ain’t running anyway. Again, show me data not speculation out of whole cloth
So again you are going by emerson alone?Last poll for swing states in emerson was in mid June no? Because again polls like Bloomberg show him in lead on July 5-7.
Nobody is polling for them because they are just not a reality as of yet. Have an Open Convention and pick someone that focus groups and sampled polls show to be well-received, and then people throw-down on picking them over Stupid Hitler…
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I encourage you to average polls from different polling firms instead of over-focusing on data from one firm. Singling out ONE poll that you like seems like confirmation bias. The information I provided was an average of at least 3 post-debate head-to-head polls (Bloomberg, Emerson, Remington). PA looks the worst, and that is devastating. WI/MI are within the ‘margin-of-effort’, but are TERRIBLE when compared with the 2020 public polling data. As more polling data is released then I will review them in aggregate.
It’s not going to work now with Biden; we have to try something else and see if it will -unless there is a surge later in the week, like a parting of the Red Sea. I doubt that will happen. The Stephanopolous interview went poorly. I am not counting him out on one flubbed debate (though considering the last debate is just before the election -we should!)
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I’ve thought about this a lot now. A candidate that will be better but can still win. Better = pet rock. But can win? Anyone probably. But I am sticking with my original answer. AOC. Did you all see how much she won by this year? She ripps apart pretty much everyone in congress. Articles of impreachment for the supreme cort? So many other candidates talked about in this thread. But do people know who they are? Do voters know what you all know? Bernie would have been my choice but not anymore (I sill love you Bernie). Give AOC the money the DNC is going to spend on Genocide Joe. Put her in front of the media. And just let her talk. How could they fight her? She has proved herself over and over. Risks death daily just by going to work. First woman president. From where she started. Against an incumbant. Give her that chance and she can win. And as for defeating Darth Orange, I think it would be the largest landslide in history. Of course the demopublican party (Republicans and Corprate Democrats) would spend every penny they could against her. But im pretty sure there are more of us then there arevof them. I would bet a dollar on that. AOC 2024! Take back America from the corporations and give it back to the people!!
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<joke>Now you do realize if we were posting links to our supporting info on TYT youtube comments, our accounts would be pulled for “spamming” -well, maybe not the ones favorable to Biden/Harris…</joke>
[To others reading this: refer to my comments on this thread describing the shadow-banning and account termination that happened to me, while in other comments on Prog videos not having to do with Biden/Harris they often permit a link to a site with an editorial or supporting info…]
We all can read the article for ourselves (released July 9th at 5:01am EST)…notice this statement about Harris-Shapiro
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/09/biden-clinton-harris-democrat-poll-00166937
Well, I guess one organization polled some new Dem tickets vs Trump after the debate, and then published the results.
If they had let rfk in the first debate he’d be polling over 25% right now and catching both of them.
they need to let all 3 third party candidates into the debates (at least stein, rfk, and oliver) and the polls would fly away from both trump and biden.
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Hopefully MEMBERS of the DNC will demand transparency from now on. Because leadership obviously won’t take any initiative.
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John and Anna, either order!
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So again you are going by emerson college correct? I have double checked today and the Last poll for swing states in emerson was in mid June. “The latest poll from Emerson College, conducted with 1,000 registered voters between June 30 and July 2,” - form the RealClearPoll website you just linked.
While Bloomberg Morning consult " Conducted from July 1 to July 5 with around 700 registered voters in each state, this poll found that President Biden leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by three and five points, respectively, in a head-to-head race. This represents a shift from the previous Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted in May, where Biden was up by one point in Michigan, and Trump was up by one point in Wisconsin." - that is literally copy-pasted from the RealClear poll you are talking about. Stop gaslighting us,
And you can go to Bloomberg yourself and see the latest poll from July 5-7th as I have mentioned before.
Plus Emerson is not considering 3rd party candidates at all. RFK Jr is at 8% and he is pulling voters from Biden.
Also, The latest Emerson College poll was sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation. If the idea is that the establishment wants him gone then I am not sure how much to trust that poll,
And yes, I am averaging them. I am talking about average of Bloomberg, Yougov, Reuters Ipsos, Survey USA, Mason Dixon, EPIC-MRA, 1983 labs, Remmington, And The Hill (emerson) among others. There are also polls funded by RFK JR in certain states that I am paying attention to. But averaging polls doesn’t mean you refuse to look at time, Before and after the debate polls should not be blindly equated. You have to look at the latest polls for trends. When polls were done matters. You said it includes polls from today. I am merely asking you where because I cant find nationwide Emerson polls after mid June and none after July 1st.
You are consistently ignoring that PA had flipped only recently because of the new news coverage and is at like a 2 point gap. In the other 2 Biden was behind on 29th - 1st but is leading ACC to 5-7th data. So your point doesn’t make any sense to me.
And screaming about Biden’s polls doesn’t solve the problem that none of his replacement are doing better than Him let alone Trump. You are not going to convince me unless you show me polls that show any of the other candidates doing better.Saying they haven’t been polled is a cop out. There IS polling and it shows them behind Biden and losing to Trump. Except that one Ipsos poll that shows Michelle leading which is moot since she ain’t running anyway. Again, show me data not speculation out of whole cloth
And even then I am open only to a completely open snap primary held nation wide where Dem VOTERS get to vote, not these corporate ghouls called delegates. I have no interest in having corporate hacks anoint another corporate hack and help them democracy-face their despotism. This BS is WHY they keep losing elections
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