Are you serious? This BS is definitely funded by establishment hacks, This poll shows Hillar Clinton faring better than Harris. I can no longer consider you a serious person if you keep referencing nonsense like this.
I am still waiting for you explanation about the untruths and lies by omission in my previous comment
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Uh, chill a bit. Iām going to explain some prior posts, but convincing you is not even a minor goal of mine.
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Iām not calculating and plotting the moving-averages by hand, the website provides those graphs. The graphs are moving-average timelines, which means on any given date you have to read/understand the time-window of polls used for that moving average. The graph has a table below it, and every poll that is included in the current moving average is clearly labeled/highlighted. Goodness, these types of charts/data were available way back during the Obama-2012 election run (no format changes in over a decade).
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Just because you are not familiar with this website does not mean Iām being deceptive. As new polls are added or enough time passes, older polls are removed from the moving-average calculation. The website provides the information, it is up to the reader to make proper interpretations. A quick example is below for Wisconsin data. The current ātime windowā is June 12-July 5 with 5 polls (highlighted in grey). Despite that time window, 4 of the 5 polls are post-debate polls.
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There is one public poll that compares a Harris/Shapiro ticket to Trump. I believe a well-vetted, well-balanced, practical TICKET can defeat Trump (not just Harris vs Trump head-to-head). I provided one poll, and will adjust my thoughts if more Harris/Shapiro vs Trump polls are released, so they can be viewed in aggregate. Other Harris/Shapiro vs Trump polls may have them losing by 8%, which will sway me. Iām not going to assume every poll I ālikeā is credible and every poll I ādislikeā in not credible/hack-sponsored.
Youāre free to research the poll, the firm, and their methodology.
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If you believe I am going to address any āuntruths and lies by omission in my previous commentā then you may continue to wait.
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Watch todayās TYT show (looks like he might have listened when I recommended he focus on the hopelessness of the polling, as opposed to attacking his fitness, which anti-Trumpers have a reflex reaction that you must be a Repub if youāre attacking himā¦) He goes over many polls and makes the case that itās over [for Biden].
I think the Dems have demanded in private that he take a thorough test right away (if he does not, more and more will start to rebel; add to that, itās only a matter of time that Repubs will legally demand itā¦)
POSSIBLY in exchange for that test, they agreed to tone down the questioning in public THIS WEEK. Letās give it a few days, Cenk; in the meantime. keep the money coming people to the blank-slate PACs, to increase the odds of an Open Convention and get the Biden careerists to see that itās over (and I speak as someone who believes he did a fantastic job in spite of an obstructing Congress -but we canāt blow this in order for him to engage in a fantasy of personal revenge; stuff like that is the reason we hate Stupid Hitlerā¦)
Watch this video discussing the test, from a Dem -on NBC, no less!
[So nice to be able to post a supporting video in my Comments without some youtube/Google stooge redacting it at the behest of the Biden/Harris media campaignā¦]
You ARE being deceptive. Which is why you feel the need to fly off the handle and tell everyone else to āchillā. The exact same website you keep talking about shows Mi +0.6 for Trump. While you keep posting the lead is 2-3 points.
So yes, you ARE being deceptive. Especially when you keep posting old graphs without timelines. When you talk about rolling average but post one pollās data to prove a point, that IS being deceptive.
I have quoted before and I will quote it again from the same website you are talking about, so pay attention.
I have double checked today and the Last poll for swing states in emerson was in mid June. āThe latest poll from Emerson College, conducted with 1,000 registered voters between June 30 and July 2,ā - form the RealClearPoll website you just linked. You claimed the latest Emerson poll was July 8th. That was a lie.
While Bloomberg Morning consult " Conducted from July 1 to July 5 with around 700 registered voters in each state, this poll found that President Biden leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by three and five points, respectively, in a head-to-head race. This represents a shift from the previous Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted in May, where Biden was up by one point in Michigan, and Trump was up by one point in Wisconsin." - that is literally copy-pasted from the RealClear poll you are talking about. Stop gaslighting us,
Just because you think everyone will not know how polling and stats work, doesnāt mean you can just lie about stuff like this.
And you still havenāt addressed the main issue - Screaming about Bidenās polls doesnāt solve the problem that none of his replacements are doing better than Him let alone Trump. You keep claiming that is not the case when The same website you keep quoting has polls of replacements.
You are not going to convince me unless you show me polls that show any of the other candidates doing better. Again, show me data not speculation out of whole cloth
If you want to replace Biden I will only settle with this.
Conduct extensive polling with registered dems and independents (including broken down by race) to see how the votes would change if we remove just Biden and both Biden and Harris vs different replacements.
Only and only if there is a lead beyond the margin of error against Trump am I ok with replacement.
The replacement needs to happen in an actual open primary where anyone can put their hat in the ring, have 3 debates in 3 weeks and nationwide snap primaries are held for the registered dems to vote for their fave candidates.
Then Whoever is the winner is fine by me. Else everyone needs to stop whining and either get behind Biden or decide who you wanna write in /slash vote for other than him in the election.
That REAL neural Parkinsonās test, which it sounds like they havenāt done [out of fear of flunking it] might just show heās too fargone now to start a stretch of four years. Then we are thrown into the next crisis: will there be an Open Convention, and will Biden careerists insist that it HAS TO be Harris?
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No, only you need to chill, just you, nobody else on this thread but you.
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Youāve put waaaay too much time/energy into this discussion.
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The topic of this board is: āThe New Candidates: Who would be your pick to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee to defeat Trump?ā Most participants provided names, some names were suggested in jest, some names included supporting data, some participants exchanged ideas about the suggested names.
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You donāt appear to agree with the premise of this discussion board (to replace Biden). You will not be convinced by any suggested namesā¦and you will not convince me that Biden should NOT be replaced. Thatās fineā¦people in this world disagree about several topics.
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Itās time to move on and to spend your time/energy communicating with a different person. I wish you well in your future endeavors.
Harris/Shapiro-2024
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If she wins an Open Convention, fine; theyāll still lose with her word salads and poor showing these past three years [which might not be her fault; Biden might have told her not to do much out of fear of her being a lightning rod for the Repubs to attack -but thatās what can happen when you agree to be a VP!]
I gotta say: that habit with the word salads? Looks like a desperate gimmick to sound deep. [Donāt be having me post videos to prove it to youā¦]
AHAHAHA so basically you admit that you were LYING about all the polls and have not bothered to even think about what the replacement would be like. Let me show you again.
And again you are lying when you say I do not support replacing Biden. I have clearly stated HOW I want Biden replaced in the previous post. maybe read before your start typing with a closed mind?
And your problem is that other people are bothering to think about this? maybe that is what we SHOULD be doing before trying to burn down the āmost important election of our lifeā. stop to think if we should before jumping to do it just because we could.
You are saying you are unable to actually have a sensible logical fact based conversation with anyone who disagrees with you? What are you? Blue MAGA?
And I am not the only one on this thread mate, you are here too. Have you forgotten.
I am still waiting for you to explain to me why we should replace Biden when everyone else polls worse and Biden isnāt actually doing as bad as you are making it out to be. Iāll keep waiting for you to use an ounce of reason to give an actual honest reply without trying to gaslight people.
Maybe if you relaxed and set your hatred aside for 5 seconds you would be able to think clearly.
I agree. That āwhat can be, unbirdened by what has beenā is just Obamaās āwe look forward not backwardā with just more confusing verbiage. And I donāt think they should replace Biden because all the replacements are poling worse than him.
And this is before they et eviscerated for their buried skeletons.
But I donāt support an Open āconventionā since that just means elites pick other elites. If you want to replace Biden I will only settle with this.
Conduct extensive polling with registered dems and independents (including broken down by race) to see how the votes would change if we remove just Biden and both Biden and Harris vs different replacements.
Only and only if there is a lead beyond the margin of error against Trump am I ok with replacement.
The replacement needs to happen in an actual open primary where anyone can put their hat in the ring, have 3 debates in 3 weeks and nationwide snap primaries are held for the registered dems to vote for their fave candidates.
Then Whoever is the winner is fine by me. Else everyone needs to stop whining and either get behind Biden or decide who you wanna write in / vote for other than him in the election.
I completely agree!
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This sounds like Carvilleās Town Halls idea (note the pluralā¦), which is much less formal than what you propose.
An Open Convention would be by delegates casting votes on a public floor; that would be better than an Anointing by the high priests. Arranging a new primary? I donāt think thatās realistic in the time remaining,
@Taylor, I have a song request for you to play at the Blitz Primary:
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Warren/Porter would be my dream ticket
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I just want someone who can keep trump out. So Iām thinking Gavin Newsome has many faults, but that he could beat trump. I think he has the personality and stage presence to campaign successfully and win in a debate against trump. I think he has name recognition that would help. Heās not my top preference as a person, but I just canāt stand another trump regime, and I donāt think the world can survive it.
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Iāve been shouting the name Catherine Cortez Masto into the void for years now. Sheās won twice in Nevada, a swing state, and sheās quiet, keeps her head down, and works. Biden vetted her for VP before narrowing it to a Black woman. Any new scandalous oppo on her would be VERY surprising given her temperament and work ethic.
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Not even close. I specifically said VOTERS. His dumb townhall is still only allowing delegates to vote. Unless registered voters get to vote it is all BS. And the candidates would be picked by Obama and Clinton? And Oprah and Taylpr will be judges? What is this? The real housewives of New jersey? They need to stop trying to democracy-pface tyranny or there is not going to be a democratic party left
OK; letās see if they can arrange a PRIMARY before the -what? one month??- to the Convention thenā¦
Its not about whether they CAN. because they CAN. Countries do snap elections all the time. The problem is they WONT because they want a corporate lapdog in power
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Any combination of the following:
Jon Stewart
Jamie raskin
Wes moore
Nina turner
Andy Beshear
Gretchen whitmer
Bernie (he shouldāve been the president in 2016)
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I think someone from the big unions like Sean Fain or Sean OāBrien.
I would love to see Cenk in office. Of course bernie.
Jon Stewart would be nice , Nina turner would be great.
But honestly I donāt really know much about other potential candidates outside of the tytshpere . Thats why Iād like to see an open convention.
Not only would we get to meet new candidates but our own progressive hopefuls can get a chance to get some exposure to a larger audience without the blight of the corporate media filter. Im skeptical of the chances of an open convention but one can always hope.
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