Why are you using the Michigan poll of the file, when my statement was “At least Harris/Shapiro resets the fight in PA for Dems”?
That 123pg file has PA data and it has MI data, so attention-to-detail skills are critical. To help, the bottom of each page of the crosstabs data is labeled “Michigan voters” or “Pennsylvania voters”.
I made no argument about Harris/Shapiro in Michigan and presented no data about Harris/Shapiro in Michigan.
Back to Pennsylvania
Harris vs Trump (and others) in PA w/out any running mates (pg 57)
Harris/Shapiro vs Trump/Vance in PA (pg 60)
Your Wrongturn Error
The data you provided was off-topic because the discussion is about Pennsylvania, not Michigan. Your data came from page 123, and if you read further you would have seen it was for Michigan voters.
Yes, the president can issue executive orders. He can also use the bully pulpit of the presidential office to pressure his opponents. He can affect the outcome of legislation by using the threat of veto. There are many other tools at his proposal. Biden barely even mentioned the George Floyd Policing Act, or the voting rights act, etc. once he was in office.
The same can be said of Obama and Clinton. That pattern of courting the Black vote, then not even appearing to try fulfilling those commitments is what has led, in large part anyway, to the decline of our participation. It feels as if our votes are taken for granted.
At that level of scrutiny for “promises” then everyone’s votes are taken for granted: union voters, LGBT voters, senior citizen voters, under 30voters, Hispanic voters, rural voters, pro-choice/pro-life voters, veteran voters, white female voters…they all hear ‘promises’ and are then disappointed with results. With all of these constituencies (for both political parties) I don’t see black voters being ignored at any greater rate than other voters.
One thing I do recognize is the stark difference in leadership opportunities Dem Presidents provide to diverse people vs those Rep Presidents provide to diverse people. Compare the diversity of Biden’s cabinet and WH staff to Trump’s cabinet and WH staff. Compare the diversity of Biden’s federal judge appointments to Trump’s federal judge appointments. Those are ~100% executive POTUS decisions.
The one you are citing is BEFORE people surveyed were told about damaging info for Shapiro. That is only after harris propaganda info was revealed. After they were informed about Shapiro and Vance the above mentioned table shows the results in PA. hence proving my point.
But yes, I am focused on Mi
So how is any of this Off topic? I am using Mi because You cant wint the election if you LOSE MI? There is NO victory path unless we win Mi. Which is why I have been specifically pointing out Shapiro is going to do horribly in Mi. As even this data shows. Seriously, what on earth even is your argument? You can choose to make it about ONE swing state to prove a non point. But you arent going to win anyway if you lose MI or all of the other swing states.
In that same data sheet you literally have Whitmer doing better than Shapiro so even in this dumbass poll, I don’t understand why you keep peddling Shapiro?
Again, I am not saying this should be the basis of decision making but even if you look at the same poll you cited, Whitmer is a better option according to it.
So yes, like I said, first of all you always cherry pick data. But why am I assuming you would be honest about anything?
Second, this poll isn’t even about leads, its checking for what messaging will be more effective on voters.
Third, you are the one screaming about rolling average of polls, and now we should believe this one poll?
You always cherry pick one thing and keep trying to justify a nonsensical non point. Can you ever talk sense instead of trying to win a nonsensical argument by misrepresenting data?
So, The only question here is does Shapiro help us win the election better than anyone else?
The answer is NO.
You can gaslight and LIE all you want. The poll YOU cited DOES NOT suggest that Shapiro would be a better option against JD VAnce to win the election. Which was the original actual question.
Whatever else you want to BS about, do on your own time
So no. According to data from PA from the poll YOU cited Shaprio does NOT help harris win PA. Nor does he help her win Mi. Whichh Whitmer does. hence in every respect Shaprio is a worse choice against JD Vance according to the poll YOU cited.
Maybe spend more energy looking up actual facts than trying to LIE and GASLIGHT people
1
PA is the most important state of the PA/MI/WI trio (just based on electoral math), so that is why I prioritize Shapiro over Whitmer…because PA > MI. If the Dems are going to lock-up a state between those two then lock-up PA, and do the best you can in MI.
2
I’d rather have Harris/Shapiro fight for MI than Harris/Whitmer fight for PA because MI trends ‘bluer’ than PA. It’s still an uphill battle for Harris/Shapiro in MI, but a more left-leaning state is more receptive to Dems.
3
Winning PA’s 19 electoral college votes keeps other paths-to-270 open for the Dem campaign. Losing PA is a virtual election-over scenario.
So yes, Harris-Shapiro is a better electoral option than Harris-Whitmer if it gets the Dems PA.
You’re lost in the crosstabs and missing one of the bigger points of this particular poll (as summarized on page 1).
Pair Harris with a popular sitting governor of that state and the ticket’s polling in that state improves vs Trump/Vance. That concept makes common sense, and the data supports it (regardless if the question is before/after providing the respondent with extra information).
Shifting the goalposts again, i see?
I thought your question was does the poll you cited show Shapiro helping Harris win PA? Which is doesn’t. So you LIED.
next -
Care to explain this new math you are pulling out of your arse now?
PA - 4% Trump
Wi - 4% Trump
Mi - 1.8% trump
Az - 5.2% Trump
Nv - 5.6% Trump
I’d like to see what kind of math actually says lets put candidates on tickets to fight in PA where latest polls show Trump leading by 4% instead of Mi where he is leading by 1.8% while ignoring all the others Let me get my popcorn for this fiction.
So just to revisit, you were LYING about the actual data in the polls? Because it doesn’t even show Shapiro winning PA with Harris to begin with. SO what nonsense analysis are you even doing?
Crosstabs? You are the one who wanted to to cite page numbers. Now that your LIE was called out AGAIN, you want to flip flop some more? Dude you can keep trying to shift the goalposts all you like, you first FALSELY claimed the conversation was about PA. I will repeat - The poll DOES NOT show Shapiro helping harris win PA.
This poll shows Shapiro doesn’t help win either state but Whitmer helps win Mi. So why on earth would I pick Shapiro over Whitmer based on the poll YOU cited?
Second, No. This poll is actually testing what propaganda points are actually changing voters mind and in which demographic. with state govs as VP, Why else would they test Whitmer and Shapiro in both PA and Wi. As is evident by the questionnaires and the format of the survey. They poll and then ask propaganda points of harris, poll again, then about VP on Dem and Reoub side and poll again. So nice try but you won’t be able to gaslight anyone on this. Unlike you, we KNOW how polling works.
next, This is a national election. Why would I win one state and lose 5 others? Talk sense. Plus what happened to “rolling average” of polls?
The truth is you haven’t made a sensible point till now. All you have done is LIED, cherry picked data, misrepresented it and LIED some more and now are shifting goalposts to prove a non point.
Harris isn’t even the best choice to replace Bidne from AMONG the right wing establishment hacks they have in the Dem party right now. Why are we polling her and why with Only Shapiro And Whitmer and Why in only 2 states is beyond my understanding.
You don’t have a point, stop wasting everyone’s time with nonsense.
I obviously picked other with Bernie and or Katie Porter.
I guess I should be grateful Hillary and Pete are not on the list. Also grateful our weak WI gov and Senator are not the list! Ideally, I would like to eliminate anyone who endorsed Hillary or Biden over Bernie in the past because their judgment sucks!
I know nothing about Shapiro and Pritzka. I think Harris was horrible in the last pres run. I think Michelle Obama would be horrible as president and I think she would be personally miserable in the job. Plus I was disgusted with the way Barak Obama threw his Presidency away. What a waste of hope and change. I do not understand how Whitmer could not have a flint water problem… no prosecutions for responsible parties?
I find it intriguing that there is absolutely no polling on Biden with another VP. One would think that with the kamala problem dems have right now, that would at least be talked about
huh? Biden is the biggest problem. No vp will make him cognitively better or physically better. They should be invoking the 25th Amend and removing him from office now. Harris becomes Pres for the remainder of the term and we get an open convention. It is just a shame all the delegates are Biden folks.
<shameless-plug>That was the reason I am pushing for the idea of an anonymous non-binding round; so the delegates could express their honest opinion on the viability of each of the slates, unpressured by later retaliation that could come from Party leadership…</shameless-plug>
Clearly balloting should be done by petition with a very high amount of signatures needed for higher offices. Then the Parties become group strategists, not bridge trolls barring access to candidates…
Its not that easy to replace both Biden and kamala. Imagine if you go to open convention and have all this circus but because delegates don’t break you still end up with Biden and Kamala on the ticket? How would that feel?
Kamala is just as bad as Biden if not worse ( and she doesn’t have age as an excuse) and no one in the establishment likes her.
I was thinking if we could replace the VP and keep Biden on the ticket, it would essentially just mean people are voting for the new VP to actually be president. And we don’t lose funding money pledged to the Biden harris Ticket and we also solve the Kamala problem
That is precisely why I have been screaming at TYT to stop calling an open convention a “democratic process”. Its basically a bunch of corporate stooges picking another corporate stooge to replace corporate stooge Biden. Oligopoly 101. Voters don’t get a say. They know that which is why they said from day 1 - “no chance that a progressive will be picked”. Then what is all this circus for?
