The discussion of picking a conservative running mate is absurd; They think it will give her conservative cred, but most anybody knows a VP has no real say; they can only act at the invitation of the President. Did they think we all just fell off the turnip truck yesterday?
So whoever she picks, it will need to be the one that will deliver the most Electoral votes. <sigh>But I still don’t think it would be enough to win…</sigh>
[I should start toning it down on this board; <joke>I’m just laying down enough posts to pull a Cenk I-told-you-so.later…</joke> But if somebody cuts up the Convention, I will be back on for the play-by-play!]
Michigan Gov has baggage and she doesn’t want it. The Flint Michigan water contamination disaster was never prosecuted.
All the other governors are just a generic fill in white male options, nothing special.
Kelly was a freaking astronaut and flew in active combat missions during Desert Storm. He meets the commander in chief box 100%
And then, in response to any sympathy to Trump’s attempted assassination … Kelly’s wife had an attempted assassination resulting in serious brain damage and they followed up with advocacy to ban bump stocks etc. I read an article where he said he probably owns more guns than the average Arizonian. He can speak intelligently on guns and has the credibility to speak on reasonable gun regulation.
Kamala is already attacked for her vp role re immigration and the border. Kelly is from a border state and can speak with experience on this issue.
Shapiro offers the best chance to win PA, and those 19ECs just can’t be ignored. I trust the campaign is vetting/poll-testing the different ticket combinations in key states. Shapiro is not a milkdud campaigner, he has strong oratory presence (on and off the teleprompter), energy, and edge.
There’s a strong case for Kelly also (see post #336 in this thread). The risk with Kelly is post #337 because Harris/Kelly/Gabby didn’t sell well enough in PA (the reddest of the WI/MI/PA trio).
4 Yea, PA’s 19 electoral votes are that important…it’s the brutality of math. If his target audience is PA indys and PA moderates then he should focus on the issues that are strictly important to them. The first mission is win the state, and I don’t give a damn what he thinks about my top voting issues. The alternative is Trump.
5 Vet the ticket, poll-test the ticket, focus-group the ticket…don’t expect any ticket to satisfy every voting block
Well i am finding some issues on Shapiro. PA largest teachers union upset Shapiro is supporting school vouchers. Trade unions getting unhappy about some energy taxes and jobs at coal plants.
Doesn’t sound so rosy but I have never lived there so just an outsider.
No doubt main stream media will get to the bottom of this! jk
Governors for President (a tougher road)
Toughest part about being an executive in divided government is constantly pissing some constituencies off…it is what it is. Governors are close to the people/action, make consequential decisions, and are held accountable. There is soooo much more fertile ground to find dirt on a governor who is getting vetted for a national ticket.
US Senators for President (an easier road)
In contrast, senators just take votes and represent their states. Maybe they sponsor legislation, maybe they co-sponsor legislation. Maybe a bill becomes a law, maybe it doesn’t. They sit on various important committees for hearings and legislation. Senators tend to vote in blocks so the accountability is spread amongst many. Every now and then senators become the deciding vote on a critical bill and get a lot of positive/negative attention (Sinema, Manchin, McCain). The pathway from the US Senate to the White House is so much cleaner than the pathway from the governor’s mansion to the White House.
Dems haven’t had a governor on its presidential ticket since 1992 – is it just easier to vet/accept a Senator than a Governor??
Hell, if it wasn’t for Bob Casey being up for re-election this year then Harris/Casey would be a safer choice to win PA than Harris/Shapiro…but that’s not reality.
I am glad we seem to atleast partially agree on something. But you have to start looking at the whole electoral map instead of just PA. I repeat. trying to win PA should not be so blind sided that we lose hold on other states. Mark Kelly is the least disruptive in all states combined. Given Harris is going to be polarising herself (if she is the actual nominee), Kelly would help soothe the anxiety of a lot of those people.
Margin-of-Effort Race
This poll also has Shapiro’s favorable rating in PA at 61%. Vet him deep, vet him wide, and vet him thoroughly. Poll-test and focus-group this ticket in MI/WI/PA, and if it works then put him on the ticket. The first job is to win!!
I completely get what you are saying and would LOVE IT if that could work (although I’d like Turner over Whitmore any day of the week ). Unfortunately, our country and every institution within is tightly woven together by White Supremacy and Colonization. Harris has a great chance, and I think she has an uphill battle simply because she is not only a woman but a woman of color. I hate that this is true. In this country, and perhaps most importantly, in this specific race (rife with misogyny and racism), I think the only shot Harris has of winning is by picking a White man as her Veep.
I understand. Yet conversely it’s why I’m so pumped for this election. I believe in good change and good revolution. We’re in desperate need of a good revolution. It’s happening elsewhere in the world, but slowly. The US remains entrenched. There are so many factors blocking that progress and you listed a bunch.
In my simple thinking and with a closed energy system that entrenchment leads to terrible things. I think that’s already on show. I think it takes something seismic to change it, or something completely out of left field. Apparently a coup wasn’t seismic enough. Apparently all the misogyny and racism isn’t enough. Apparently extreme weather isn’t enough.
Kamala/Whitmer might be enough, because even on the left that’s ‘radical’, but not due to policy per se. That’s why it leaps out at me. It’s the audacity of hope.
Where have I heard Josh Shapiro’s speaking style before??
Shapiro has been studying/practicing tapes of Obama-08, who was extremely effective at giving campaign speeches. This is NOT a coincidence.
Listen to Shapiro’s cadence, listen to his inflection, listen to how he modulates his volume from strong to whisper, listen to his injection of humor…Shapiro has been in the gym putting in the work on campaign-speaking. Two examples are below:
Shapiro is a smooth and articulate communicator…all he has to say is that he’s not running to be the governor of WI. He listened to all of the people of PA and reached a compromise decision…this is a good quality for attracting independents. He’s governing for everyone, not just Dems. In a functioning democracy sometimes you win an argument sometimes you lose an argument. I can then see him pivoting to the autocracy Trump is offering in which your voice won’t even be considered in the decision.
We agree that Kelly has some positive qualities, but that doesn’t make Harris/Kelly an electoral winner versus Harris/Shapiro.
1 Kelly might be moderate, but the ticket is geographically unbalanced. It’s a CA & AZ ticket trying to sell in MI/WI/PA. Another perspective is it’s a CA & AZ ticket trying to sell in NC/GA. Having lived over 30yrs in the Great Lakes area, and over 10yrs in NC…both of those sells are tremendously tough. Most of the swing states are east of the Mississippi River (WI, MI, PA, GA, NC) instead of west (AZ, NV)
2 Kelly is not as comfortable, not as charismatic, and not as confident speaking in front of medium-to-large crowds as Shapiro is, both on-and-off teleprompter (see 3 examples below). In a 100-day race, if the ticket is vetted, poll-tested, and focus-grouped then Shapiro is the better choice than Kelly.
3 PA(19) > AZ(11). Shapiro is still the best VP choice to help win PA.
4 If the campaign thinks Shapiro is a ‘drag’ in select areas of MI then don’t schedule him in MI. Just pair Harris with Whitmer for MI events, or pair Harris with Slotkin for MI events, or pair Harris with either of the Obamas for MI events.
Walz has surely been making the rounds lately. I have to say, he and the Democrats in Minnesota have made huge strides in working for kids and everyday people. I’m curious as to what others think about him. (Keep in mind that while I think he’d be a great addition to Harris’ ticket or cabinet (?), I am feeling a bit selfish and would love to keep him as our little progressive secret in Minnesota. )
His 24yrs of Army service combined with being a HS teacher is uniquely positive.
He’s comfortable and articulate in front of the camera and on social media with his daughter. I haven’t researched any campaign speeches yet. He’d sell better to ‘white working class’ voters in MI/WI/PA than Beshear (and likely Kelly).
If any Dem ticket needs Walz to deliver MN then the race is already over
The Harris/Walz ticket would be labeled ultra-liberal, and that may stick.
I do not know why you think Walz will play better in Mi and WI than Kelly???
Kelly a son of cops while also a combat veteran and astronaut who is a solid gun owner and from military is important. I believe Whitmer and Shapiro lack in comparison. Maybe Waltz can compete in the resume but he is not from a border state with Mexico, nor is MN a swing state.
Now Harris will do just fine for Madison and Milwaukee our biggest Dem populations. It is the Green Bay area that can really make a difference either way.
I do think a white male will help. i just do not think Waltz Whitmer or Shapiro help Harris on Immigration where she needs the most help. I do not think a 2 women ticket is a good idea. When I phone banked nationally for Bernie, it was PA where I heard more men state they would never vote for a woman. The woman at the time was Hillary. Have people changed since? maybe.
). Unfortunately, our country and every institution within is tightly woven together by White Supremacy and Colonization. Harris has a great chance, and I think she has an uphill battle simply because she is not only a woman but a woman of color. I hate that this is true. In this country, and perhaps most importantly, in this specific race (rife with misogyny and racism), I think the only shot Harris has of winning is by picking a White man as her Veep.